IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·demo_ageing_pension_burden_cross_country

Across OECD countries 1990-2023, the rise in the old-age dependency ratio is associated with a proportional increase in public pension expenditure as a share of GDP and crowding-out of productive public investment, particularly where pay-as-you-go pension architecture predominates.

The hypothesis predicts a positive elasticity of pension spending to old-age dependency exceeding 0.7, and a negative association between rising pension shares and public capital investment.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_ageing_pension_burden_cross_country

PARTIAL — coef=+0.09129, p=0.172 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether old age dependency ratio is actually linked to better or worse public pension expenditure share income from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.09129, p=0.172 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Old age dependency ratio
What we checked
  • Public pension expenditure share income
  • Public investment share income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_ageing_pension_burden_cross_country
1007550250199020072023USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPJPN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show public_pension_expenditure_share_gdp across 30 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_ageing_pension_burden_cross_country. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_ageing_pension_burden_cross_country/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:47Z

Across OECD countries 1990-2023, the rise in the old-age dependency ratio is associated with a proportional increase in public pension expenditure as a share of GDP and crowding-out of productive public investment, particularly where pay-as-you-go pension architecture predominates. The hypothesis predicts a positive elasticity of pension spending to old-age dependency exceeding 0.7, and a negative association between rising pension shares and public capital investment.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if elasticity of pension share to old-age dependency >= 0.7 with p<0.05, AND public investment share negatively associated with pension share at p<0.10. REFUTED if elasticity below 0.4 or wrong-signed, OR no crowd-out detectable in either direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_pension_dependency_elasticity_with_crowdout
threshold: elasticity_pension_to_oadr >= 0.7 AND coef_pension_on_invest < 0 AND p < 0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
public_pension_expenditure_share_gdp
outcome
oecd:OECD.ELS.SAEtier 2
level
public_investment_share_gdp
outcome
imf:WEO.NGDP_RPCHtier 2
level
old_age_dependency_ratio
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.DPND.OLtier 2
level
gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_ageing_pension_burden_cross_country

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.09129, p=0.172 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across OECD countries 1990-2023, the rise in the old-age dependency ratio is associated with a proportional increase in public pension expenditure as a share of GDP and crowding-out of productive public investment, particularly where pay-as-you-go pension architecture predominates. The hypothesis predicts a positive elasticity of pension spending to old-age dependency exceeding 0.7, and a negative association between rising pension shares and public capital investment.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if elasticity of pension share to old-age dependency >= 0.7 with p<0.05, AND public investment share negatively associated with pension share at p<0.10. REFUTED if elasticity below 0.4 or wrong-signed, OR no crowd-out detectable in either direction.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_pension_dependency_elasticity_with_crowdout

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.09129
  • Std error: 0.06676
  • p-value: 0.172
  • Observations: 695, countries: 30
  • Within R²: 0.0644
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • oecd:OECD.ELS.SAE,DSD_SOCX_AGG@DF_SOCX_AGG,1.0 → public_pension_expenditure_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=1481)
  • imf:WEO.NGDP_RPCH → public_investment_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=imf, n=10914)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.DPND.OL → old_age_dependency_ratio (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16935)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.EST → government_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:47+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

SOCX OECD path data-gated; IMF GFCF series resolved at wiring.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.