IESET.
Hypotheses·financial stability·debt_service_high_tech_exports

Rising debt service ratios are associated with a decline in high-tech exports, reflecting a crowding-out of innovation-driven trade.

PARTIALengine/runs/debt_service_high_tech_exports

PARTIAL — coef=+0.4675, p=0.296 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Does the policy environment make innovation easier to fund, build, and scale, or does it slow down useful new technology?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.4675, p=0.296 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because financial stability claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Debt service ratio
What we checked
  • High tech exports
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/debt_service_high_tech_exports
1007550250199020072023GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show high_tech_exports across 1 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for debt_service_high_tech_exports. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/debt_service_high_tech_exports/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bea2d5c · 2026-06-30T18:46:55Z
run generated · 2026-06-30T14:33:20Z

Rising debt service ratios are associated with a decline in high-tech exports, reflecting a crowding-out of innovation-driven trade.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum 12 countries and 180 observations. REFUTED if opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_debt_service_high_tech_exports
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
high_tech_exports
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZStier 2
level
debt_service_ratio
treatment
bis:WS_DSRtier 2
level
gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — debt_service_high_tech_exports

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.4675, p=0.296 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Rising debt service ratios are associated with a decline in high-tech exports, reflecting a crowding-out of innovation-driven trade.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum 12 countries and 180 observations. REFUTED if opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_debt_service_high_tech_exports

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.4675
  • Std error: 0.4471
  • p-value: 0.296
  • Observations: 534, countries: 32
  • Within R²: 0.106
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS → high_tech_exports (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3283)
  • bis:WS_DSR → debt_service_ratio (treatment, publisher=bis, n=861)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → gdp_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-30T14:33:20+00:00

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.