IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·cross_school_trade_freedom_hightech_exports_1990_2023

Freedom to trade predicts higher high-tech export intensity.

PARTIALengine/runs/cross_school_trade_freedom_hightech_exports_1990_2023

PARTIAL — coef=+0.1395, p=0.672 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.1395, p=0.672 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 159 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Efw trade
What we checked
  • High tech exports
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_trade_freedom_hightech_exports_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023AGOALBAREARGARMAUSAUT
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show high_tech_exports across 159 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_trade_freedom_hightech_exports_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_trade_freedom_hightech_exports_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 94bc3da · 2026-05-13T10:35:46Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:37Z

Freedom to trade predicts higher high-tech export intensity.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on efw_trade has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_trade_freedom_hightech_exports_1990_2023
threshold: sign(efw_trade)=+ and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
159 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
high_tech_exports
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZStier 2
level
efw_trade
treatment
fraser_efw:freedom_to_trade_internationallytier 4
level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_trade_freedom_hightech_exports_1990_2023

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.1395, p=0.672 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Freedom to trade predicts higher high-tech export intensity.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on efw_trade has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_trade_freedom_hightech_exports_1990_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.1395
  • Std error: 0.3298
  • p-value: 0.672
  • Observations: 2229, countries: 159
  • Within R²: 0.000263
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS → high_tech_exports (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3283)
  • fraser_efw:freedom_to_trade_internationally → efw_trade (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4137)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:37+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: classical_liberal, developmentalism, ordoliberal. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.