IESET.
Hypotheses·institutional quality·cross_school_rule_of_law_private_credit_depth_1996_2023

Rule of law predicts deeper private credit intermediation.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/cross_school_rule_of_law_private_credit_depth_1996_2023

SUPPORTED — coef=+6.888 (sign matches claim +), p=0.00953

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether wgi rl is actually linked to better or worse private credit from 1996 to 2023.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+6.888 (sign matches claim +), p=0.00953

why it matters

This matters because institutional quality claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 186 country or place units from 1996 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Wgi rl
What we checked
  • Private credit
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_rule_of_law_private_credit_depth_1996_2023
1007550250199620102023ABWAFGAGOALBAREARGARM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show private_credit across 186 sampled countries over 1996–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_rule_of_law_private_credit_depth_1996_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_rule_of_law_private_credit_depth_1996_2023/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 1f1a183 · 2026-05-13T00:21:31Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:17Z

Rule of law predicts deeper private credit intermediation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on wgi_rl has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_rule_of_law_private_credit_depth_1996_2023
threshold: sign(wgi_rl)=+ and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
186 countries · 1996 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
private_credit
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZStier 2
level
wgi_rl
treatment
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_rule_of_law_private_credit_depth_1996_2023

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+6.888 (sign matches claim +), p=0.00953

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Rule of law predicts deeper private credit intermediation.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on wgi_rl has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_rule_of_law_private_credit_depth_1996_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +6.888
  • Std error: 2.655
  • p-value: 0.00953
  • Observations: 3872, countries: 186
  • Within R²: 0.0323
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS → private_credit (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9562)
  • wgi:RL.EST → wgi_rl (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:17+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: ordoliberal, classical_liberal. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.