IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·cross_school_public_debt_inflation_mmt_1990_2023

Public debt does not mechanically predict higher inflation.

PARTIALengine/runs/cross_school_public_debt_inflation_mmt_1990_2023

PARTIAL — coef=+1.208, p=0.734 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether public debt is actually linked to better or worse inflation from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+1.208, p=0.734 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 105 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Public debt
What we checked
  • Inflation
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_public_debt_inflation_mmt_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023ALBAREARMAUSAZEBFABGD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show inflation across 105 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_public_debt_inflation_mmt_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_public_debt_inflation_mmt_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit b3e3070 · 2026-05-13T10:35:03Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:20Z

Public debt does not mechanically predict higher inflation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on public_debt has sign - and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_public_debt_inflation_mmt_1990_2023
threshold: sign(public_debt)=- and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
105 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
inflation
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
public_debt
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_public_debt_inflation_mmt_1990_2023

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+1.208, p=0.734 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Public debt does not mechanically predict higher inflation.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on public_debt has sign - and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_public_debt_inflation_mmt_1990_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +1.208
  • Std error: 3.554
  • p-value: 0.734
  • Observations: 1197, countries: 84
  • Within R²: 0.00277
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → inflation (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7550)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS → public_debt (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=1788)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:20+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: mmt, post_keynesian. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.