IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·cross_school_public_debt_growth_drag_1990_2023

Public debt is not necessarily growth-damaging in broad panels.

REFUTEDengine/runs/cross_school_public_debt_growth_drag_1990_2023

REFUTED — coef=-0.01981 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.000208

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefClear refutation

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether public debt is actually linked to better or worse income pc growth from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-0.01981 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.000208

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 109 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Public debt
What we checked
  • Income pc growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

2 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_public_debt_growth_drag_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023ALBANDAREARMAUSAZEBFA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gdp_pc_growth across 109 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_public_debt_growth_drag_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_public_debt_growth_drag_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Modern Monetary Theorywins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 1f1a183 · 2026-05-13T00:21:31Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:20Z

Public debt is not necessarily growth-damaging in broad panels.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on public_debt has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_public_debt_growth_drag_1990_2023
threshold: sign(public_debt)=+ and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
109 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
public_debt
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_public_debt_growth_drag_1990_2023

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-0.01981 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.000208

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Public debt is not necessarily growth-damaging in broad panels.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on public_debt has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_public_debt_growth_drag_1990_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.01981
  • Std error: 0.005326
  • p-value: 0.000208
  • Observations: 1607, countries: 109
  • Within R²: 0.0177
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS → public_debt (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=1788)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:20+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: marxian, mmt, post_keynesian. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.