IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·cross_school_private_credit_manufacturing_financialisation_1990_2023

Private-credit depth predicts manufacturing-share erosion, consistent with financialisation crowding out production.

REFUTEDengine/runs/cross_school_private_credit_manufacturing_financialisation_1990_2023

REFUTED — coef=-0.01735 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0741

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-0.01735 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0741

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 181 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Private credit
What we checked
  • Manufacturing share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_private_credit_manufacturing_financialisation_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023ABWAFGAGOALBAREARGARM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show manufacturing_share across 181 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_private_credit_manufacturing_financialisation_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_private_credit_manufacturing_financialisation_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Market Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 1f1a183 · 2026-05-13T00:21:31Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:45Z

Private-credit depth predicts manufacturing-share erosion, consistent with financialisation crowding out production.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on private_credit has sign - and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_private_credit_manufacturing_financialisation_1990_2023
threshold: sign(private_credit)=- and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
181 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
manufacturing_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
private_credit
treatment
world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZStier 2
level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_private_credit_manufacturing_financialisation_1990_2023

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-0.01735 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0741

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Private-credit depth predicts manufacturing-share erosion, consistent with financialisation crowding out production.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on private_credit has sign - and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_private_credit_manufacturing_financialisation_1990_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.01735
  • Std error: 0.009709
  • p-value: 0.0741
  • Observations: 4378, countries: 181
  • Within R²: 0.0327
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)
  • world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS → private_credit (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9562)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:45+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: marxian, market_socialist, post_keynesian. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.