IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·cross_school_fossil_electricity_life_expectancy_tradeoff_1990_2023

Higher fossil-electricity shares predict lower life expectancy after controls.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/cross_school_fossil_electricity_life_expectancy_tradeoff_1990_2023

SUPPORTED — coef=+0.01381 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0613

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether fossil electricity is actually linked to better or worse life expectancy from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+0.01381 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0613

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 206 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Fossil electricity
What we checked
  • Life expectancy
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_fossil_electricity_life_expectancy_tradeoff_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023ABWAFGAGOALBANDAREARG
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show life_expectancy across 206 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_fossil_electricity_life_expectancy_tradeoff_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_fossil_electricity_life_expectancy_tradeoff_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 1f1a183 · 2026-05-13T00:21:31Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:04Z

Higher fossil-electricity shares predict lower life expectancy after controls.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on fossil_electricity has sign - and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_fossil_electricity_life_expectancy_tradeoff_1990_2023
threshold: sign(fossil_electricity)=- and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
206 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
life_expectancy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
level
fossil_electricity
treatment
world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.FOSL.ZStier 2
level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_fossil_electricity_life_expectancy_tradeoff_1990_2023

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+0.01381 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0613

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher fossil-electricity shares predict lower life expectancy after controls.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on fossil_electricity has sign - and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_fossil_electricity_life_expectancy_tradeoff_1990_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.01381
  • Std error: 0.007377
  • p-value: 0.0613
  • Observations: 4846, countries: 168
  • Within R²: -0.00168
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.IN → life_expectancy (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14443)
  • world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS → fossil_electricity (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7650)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:04+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: eco_socialist, degrowth. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.