IESET.
Hypotheses·institutional quality·corruption_control_rd_efficiency

Higher levels of corruption control are associated with greater efficiency in converting R&D spending into patent applications.

PARTIALengine/runs/corruption_control_rd_efficiency

PARTIAL — coef=+355.2, p=0.154 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Does the policy environment make innovation easier to fund, build, and scale, or does it slow down useful new technology?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+355.2, p=0.154 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because institutional quality claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1995 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • CC.EST
What we checked
  • Pat ep rtot
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/corruption_control_rd_efficiency
1007550250199520092023GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show pat_ep_rtot across 1 sampled countries over 1995–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for corruption_control_rd_efficiency. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/corruption_control_rd_efficiency/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bea2d5c · 2026-06-30T18:46:55Z
run generated · 2026-06-30T14:46:10Z

Higher levels of corruption control are associated with greater efficiency in converting R&D spending into patent applications.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered + sign at p<=0.10 with minimum 12 countries and 180 observations. REFUTED if opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_corruption_control_rd_efficiency
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1995 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
pat_ep_rtot
outcome
eurostat:pat_ep_rtottier 1
level
CC.EST
treatment
wgi:CC.ESTtier 4
level
rd_e_gerdreg
control
eurostat:rd_e_gerdregtier 1
level
NY.GDP.PCAP.KD
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — corruption_control_rd_efficiency

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+355.2, p=0.154 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher levels of corruption control are associated with greater efficiency in converting R&D spending into patent applications.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered + sign at p<=0.10 with minimum 12 countries and 180 observations. REFUTED if opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_corruption_control_rd_efficiency

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +355.2
  • Std error: 248.6
  • p-value: 0.154
  • Observations: 357, countries: 27
  • Within R²: -0.301
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • eurostat:pat_ep_rtot → pat_ep_rtot (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=54590)
  • wgi:CC.EST → CC.EST (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5201)
  • eurostat:rd_e_gerdreg → rd_e_gerdreg (controls, publisher=eurostat, n=10441)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-30T14:46:10+00:00

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.