IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·consumer_choice_variety_trade_market_reform

Consumer product variety and price-adjusted welfare improve more after episodes of trade liberalisation and competition-policy reform than after state industrial-policy episodes of comparable duration and scale, in a panel of middle- and high-income countries 1980-2020.

Variety is measured by import-product-line counts and domestic SKU availability indices; welfare is measured by real consumption deflated by quality-adjusted price indices.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/consumer_choice_variety_trade_market_reform

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'competition_reform_episode' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefNot enough data

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'competition_reform_episode' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 38 country or place units from 1980 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Trade liberalisation episode
  • Competition reform episode
What we checked
  • Import product variety count
  • Real quality adjusted consumption
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

5 input datasets, 3 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/consumer_choice_variety_trade_market_reform
1007550250198020002020USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show import_product_variety_count across 38 sampled countries over 1980–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for consumer_choice_variety_trade_market_reform. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/consumer_choice_variety_trade_market_reform/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:48:33Z

Consumer product variety and price-adjusted welfare improve more after episodes of trade liberalisation and competition-policy reform than after state industrial-policy episodes of comparable duration and scale, in a panel of middle- and high-income countries 1980-2020. Variety is measured by import-product-line counts and domestic SKU availability indices; welfare is measured by real consumption deflated by quality-adjusted price indices.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the post-reform coefficient on trade/competition episodes is negative and significant (p < 0.10) for variety or welfare, or if industrial-policy episodes show a significantly larger positive coefficient than trade/competition episodes in a head-to-head panel specification.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_consumer_variety_reform_episodes_1980_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
38 countries · 1980 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
import_product_variety_count
outcome
un_comtrade:product_linestier 2
wits:product_concentrationtier 2
log
real_quality_adjusted_consumption
outcome
pwt:rconnatier 3
log
trade_liberalisation_episode
treatment
constructed:wacziarg_welch_trade_liberalisation_datestier 5
indicator
competition_reform_episode
treatment
oecd_pmr:overall_pmrtier 4
change_score
industrial_policy_intensity
treatment
constructed:state_ownership_share_and_sectoral_targetingtier 5
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
services_share_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — consumer_choice_variety_trade_market_reform

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'competition_reform_episode' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Consumer product variety and price-adjusted welfare improve more after episodes of trade liberalisation and competition-policy reform than after state industrial-policy episodes of comparable duration and scale, in a panel of middle- and high-income countries 1980-2020. Variety is measured by import-product-line counts and domestic SKU availability indices; welfare is measured by real consumption deflated by quality-adjusted price indices.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if the post-reform coefficient on trade/competition episodes is negative and significant (p < 0.10) for variety or welfare, or if industrial-policy episodes show a significantly larger positive coefficient than trade/competition episodes in a head-to-head panel specification.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_consumer_variety_reform_episodes_1980_2020

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'competition_reform_episode' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • un_comtrade:product_lines; world_bank_wits:product_concentration → import_product_variety_count (outcome, publisher=wits, n=5129)
  • pwt:rconna → real_quality_adjusted_consumption (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • oecd_pmr:overall_pmr → competition_reform_episode (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS → services_share_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10330)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:wacziarg_welch_trade_liberalisation_dates (treatment, name=trade_liberalisation_episode) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:state_ownership_share_and_sectoral_targeting (treatment, name=industrial_policy_intensity) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:48:33+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.