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Hypotheses·growth·catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold_v2

In Maddison long-run country panels, catch-up growth is materially faster below roughly 40 percent of US GDP per capita than above that threshold, but the post-threshold premium is small enough that the developmentalist catch-up advantage fades over longer 10-year windows.

PARTIALengine/runs/catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold_v2

partial

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. partial

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 22 country or place units from 1960 to 2018, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Below 40pct us frontier
What we checked
  • Ten year forward income pc growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

1 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold_v2
1007550250196019892018USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show ten_year_forward_gdp_pc_growth across 22 sampled countries over 1960–2018.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold_v2. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold_v2/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

9 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4467b9f · 2026-05-02T22:38:16Z

In Maddison long-run country panels, catch-up growth is materially faster below roughly 40 percent of US GDP per capita than above that threshold, but the post-threshold premium is small enough that the developmentalist catch-up advantage fades over longer 10-year windows.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if countries below 40 percent of US GDP per capita grow at least 1.0 percentage point per year faster over forward 10-year windows than countries at or above the threshold, with p<0.10. REFUTED if the below-threshold premium is zero or negative. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      maddison_10yr_frontier_threshold_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
country
Sample
22 countries · 1960 – 2018
Evidence type
associational

Bespoke Maddison robustness check in `engine/runs/catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold_v2/replication.py`.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
ten_year_forward_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
maddison:rgdpnapctier 3
ten_year_forward_annualised_log_growth
below_40pct_us_frontier
treatment
maddison:rgdpnapctier 3
indicator_country_gdp_pc_below_40pct_us
income_share_of_us_frontier
control
maddison:rgdpnapctier 3
ratio_to_us_gdp_pc

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold_v2

Verdict: partial — Diff +0.11pp below threshold (1pp) or not significant (p=0.166).

Design

Maddison panel 1960-2018. 10-year-forward annualised log GDP-per-capita growth. Split by income relative to US frontier (< 40% vs ≥ 40%).

Methodology Note

This is a v2 robustness check for catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold. v1 used PWT RGDPE + 5-year-forward growth and found PARTIAL (+0.38pp diff, p<0.001). v2 uses Maddison (longer coverage, different PPP base) + 10-year windows to test sensitivity to data source and growth horizon.

Metrics

| Metric | Value | |---|---| | Observations | 7948 | | Countries | 169 | | Mean growth below | +2.08%/yr | | Mean growth above | +1.97%/yr | | Difference | +0.11pp/yr | | p-value | 0.166 | | Spline coef | -3.34pp |

Interpretation

See v1 result card for primary interpretation. This v2 tests whether the partial verdict is sensitive to data source (Maddison vs PWT) and growth horizon (10-year vs 5-year).

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.