IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold

Developmentalist catch-up growth premiums are strongest before countries reach roughly 40 percent of US GDP per capita, but the premium fades or reverses after that middle-income threshold unless market competition and rule-bound institutions strengthen.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold

SUPPORTED — coef=+1.288 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0312

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+1.288 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0312

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 23 country or place units from 1960 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Developmentalist policy intensity
  • Market institution strength
What we checked
  • Five year income pc growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

1 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold
1007550250196019922024KORTWNCHNMYSTHAVNMIDN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show five_year_gdp_pc_growth across 23 sampled countries over 1960–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if REFUTEDschool refutedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:44Z

Developmentalist catch-up growth premiums are strongest before countries reach roughly 40 percent of US GDP per capita, but the premium fades or reverses after that middle-income threshold unless market competition and rule-bound institutions strengthen.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if developmentalist intensity is positive below 40 percent of US income but statistically weaker, zero, or negative above that threshold, and market-institution strength is positive above the threshold. REFUTED if developmentalist intensity remains equally positive above the threshold while market institutions add no positive signal. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      catch_up_threshold_interaction_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
23 countries · 1960 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Interaction model between developmentalist intensity and below/above 40 percent US income threshold.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
five_year_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
pwt:rgdpo_poptier 3
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
rolling five-year annualized growth
developmentalist_policy_intensity
treatment
movement_position_alignments:developmentalismtier 5
vdem:state_ownershiptier 4
world_bank_wdi:industrial_policy_proxytier 2
coded developmentalist alignment and state-allocation proxy
market_institution_strength
treatment
fraser_efw:summary_indextier 4
wgi:rule_of_lawtier 4
standardized score
income_threshold
control
pwt:rgdpo_poptier 3
country GDP per capita as share of US GDP per capita

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — catch_up_growth_fades_after_middle_income_threshold

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+1.288 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0312

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Developmentalist catch-up growth premiums are strongest before countries reach roughly 40 percent of US GDP per capita, but the premium fades or reverses after that middle-income threshold unless market competition and rule-bound institutions strengthen.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if developmentalist intensity is positive below 40 percent of US income but statistically weaker, zero, or negative above that threshold, and market-institution strength is positive above the threshold. REFUTED if developmentalist intensity remains equally positive above the threshold while market institutions add no positive signal. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: catch_up_threshold_interaction_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +1.288
  • Std error: 0.5961
  • p-value: 0.0312
  • Observations: 584, countries: 23
  • Within R²: -0.0911
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rgdpo_pop; world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → five_year_gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • fraser_efw:summary_index; wgi:rule_of_law → market_institution_strength (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4557)
  • pwt:rgdpo_pop → income_threshold (controls, publisher=pwt, n=10399)

Variables missing data

  • movement_position_alignments:developmentalism; vdem:state_ownership; world_bank:industrial_policy_proxy (treatment, name=developmentalist_policy_intensity) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:44+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.