IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·bls_qcew_county_food_service_minimum_wage_growth

County food-service employment grows more slowly when the state minimum wage rises faster.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/bls_qcew_county_food_service_minimum_wage_growth

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

When minimum wages rise high relative to normal local pay, do lower-skill workers keep their jobs, or does hiring fall at the margin?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2015 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for unit and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Minimum wage growth
What we checked
  • Food emp growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/bls_qcew_county_food_service_minimum_wage_growth
1007550250201520202024USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show food_emp_growth across 1 sampled countries over 2015–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bls_qcew_county_food_service_minimum_wage_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bls_qcew_county_food_service_minimum_wage_growth/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call⇄

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 33dda2c · 2026-05-13T10:21:38Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:26Z

County food-service employment grows more slowly when the state minimum wage rises faster.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported only if `min_wage_growth` clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_bls_qcew_county_food_service_minimum_wage_growth
threshold: {"coef_max": -0.05, "min_observations": 20000, "min_units": 2000, "p_max": 0.1, "raw_diff_max": -0.2}

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
unit, year
Clustering
unit
Sample
1 countries · 2015 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
food_emp_growth
outcome
local landed vintagesee runner
min_wage_growth
treatment
local landed vintagesee runner
total_emp_growth
control
local landed vintagelevel or growth

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bls_qcew_county_food_service_minimum_wage_growth

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: County food-service employment grows more slowly when the state minimum wage rises faster.
  • Falsification rule: Supported only if min_wage_growth clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_bls_qcew_county_food_service_minimum_wage_growth

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Variables resolved

Variables missing data

  • local landed vintage (outcome, name=food_emp_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (treatment, name=min_wage_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (controls, name=total_emp_growth) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:26+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated by A4 Batch 07-09 runner; reproducible via engine/runs/bls_qcew_county_food_service_minimum_wage_growth/replication.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.