IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·bilateral_investment_treaty_fdi_panel

In a broad-country panel 1990-2020, the cumulative stock of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) signed predicts higher subsequent net FDI inflows as a share of GDP and higher real GDP per capita growth, controlling for institutional quality, market size, and trade openness.

The directional claim is that each additional BIT is associated with at least 0.1 percentage points higher FDI/GDP and 0.05 percentage points higher annual growth over the following 5-year window.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/bilateral_investment_treaty_fdi_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: indicator = 1 for cumulative count of bilateral investment treaties signed by each country', 'constructed: indicator = 1 for cumulative count of bilateral investment treaties signed by each country']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefNot enough data

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: indicator = 1 for cumulative count of bilateral investment treaties signed by each country', 'constructed: indicator = 1 for cumulative count of bilateral investment treaties signed by each country']

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 101 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Cumulative bits signed
  • Bit stocks log
What we checked
  • Foreign investment inflows share income
  • Real income per capita growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

7 input datasets, 2 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/bilateral_investment_treaty_fdi_panel
1007550250199020052020ARGAUSAUTBELBGDBGRBRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fdi_inflows_share_gdp across 101 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bilateral_investment_treaty_fdi_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bilateral_investment_treaty_fdi_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 056ee96 · 2026-05-04T10:44:59Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:35Z

In a broad-country panel 1990-2020, the cumulative stock of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) signed predicts higher subsequent net FDI inflows as a share of GDP and higher real GDP per capita growth, controlling for institutional quality, market size, and trade openness. The directional claim is that each additional BIT is associated with at least 0.1 percentage points higher FDI/GDP and 0.05 percentage points higher annual growth over the following 5-year window.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if β1 (BIT stock) is positive and significant at p<0.10 for both FDI/GDP and GDP growth. PARTIAL if positive and significant for FDI but not growth (investment without translation to aggregate growth). REFUTED if β1 is negative and significant at p<0.10. INFORMATIVE: excluding China should not eliminate the positive sign; if it does, the result is driven by China's BIT-FDI link.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_bit_fdi_growth_5yr_forward
threshold: β_BIT_stock (FDI/GDP) > 0 at p<=0.10  AND β_BIT_stock (GDP growth) > 0 at p<=0.10  AND Ex-China robustness retains positive sign.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
101 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE panel with 5-year forward windows: FDI(t+1 to t+5) = β0 + β1*BIT_stock(t) + controls + FE. Robustness: (1) exclude tax-haven jurisdictions where FDI is round-tripped; (2) instrument BIT signing with partner-country BIT propensity (shift-share); (3) use bilateral FDI flows from OECD instead of aggregate WDI; (4) exclude China (dominant FDI recipient).

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fdi_inflows_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
cumulative_bits_signed
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for cumulative count of bilateral investment treaties signed by each countrytier 5
level
bit_stocks_log
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for cumulative count of bilateral investment treaties signed by each countrytier 5
log_plus_one
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
institutional_quality
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
population_log
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
inflation_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bilateral_investment_treaty_fdi_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: indicator = 1 for cumulative count of bilateral investment treaties signed by each country', 'constructed: indicator = 1 for cumulative count of bilateral investment treaties signed by each country']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In a broad-country panel 1990-2020, the cumulative stock of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) signed predicts higher subsequent net FDI inflows as a share of GDP and higher real GDP per capita growth, controlling for institutional quality, market size, and trade openness. The directional claim is that each additional BIT is associated with at least 0.1 percentage points higher FDI/GDP and 0.05 percentage points higher annual growth over the following 5-year window.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if β1 (BIT stock) is positive and significant at p<0.10 for both FDI/GDP and GDP growth. PARTIAL if positive and significant for FDI but not growth (investment without translation to aggregate growth). REFUTED if β1 is negative and significant at p<0.10. INFORMATIVE: excluding China should not eliminate the positive sign; if it does, the result is driven by China's BIT-FDI link.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_bit_fdi_growth_5yr_forward

Estimate

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: indicator = 1 for cumulative count of bilateral investment treaties signed by each country', 'constructed: indicator = 1 for cumulative count of bilateral investment treaties signed by each country']

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflows_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9936)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → institutional_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → population_log (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → inflation_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7550)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: indicator = 1 for cumulative count of bilateral investment treaties signed by each country (treatment, name=cumulative_bits_signed) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for cumulative count of bilateral investment treaties signed by each country (treatment, name=bit_stocks_log) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:35+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.