IESET.
Drift overview·USA

United States

net statist drift25 movements coded · 19012025·final composite drift: +59.0
tone legendleft / state-expansionright / marketcentrist / mixedauthoritarian

Composite statist-drift trajectory with movements

fiscal axes — what moved and which way

sectoral subsidyspending leveltax capitaltax corporatetax progressivitytransfer expansion

regulatory axes — what moved and which way

energy supply securityenvironmental stringencyfinancial deregulationimmigration opennesslabour market flexibilityproduct market competitionsectoral licensingtrade openness

monetary axes — what moved and which way

central bank independencemonetary expansion direction

institutional axes — what moved and which way

judicial independenceproperty rightsrule of law

Movement timeline (25)

YearMovement
1901–1917US Progressive Era reform consensus
us_progressive_era_reform_consensus_1901_1917
1933–1939FDR New Deal
us_fdr_new_deal_1933_1939
1964–1968LBJ Great Society + War on Poverty
us_lbj_great_society_1964_1968
1971–1974Nixon wage-price controls + Bretton Woods exit
us_nixon_wage_price_controls_1971_1974
1973–1981Cross-administration US energy-regulation regime 1973-1981
nixon_ford_carter_energy_regulation_1973_1981
1977–1981Carter deregulation + stagflation-era adjustments
us_carter_stagflation_era_1977_1981
1979–1982Volcker disinflation
volcker_disinflation_1979_1982
1981–1985Reagan first term — supply-side + Volcker disinflation + defence buildup
us_reagan_first_term_broad_1981_1985
1985–1989Reagan second term — TRA 1986, Cold War endgame, S&L, Black Monday
us_reagan_second_term_1985_1989
1989–1993Bush 41 Republican — 1990 budget deal, Gulf War, ADA, FIRREA
us_bush_41_republican_1989_1993
1993–1997Clinton first term — OBRA 1993, NAFTA, HillaryCare failure, Welfare Reform
us_clinton_first_term_1993_1997
1997–2001Clinton II — Balanced Budget, GLB, surplus peak, impeachment
us_clinton_second_term_1997_2001
2001–2005Bush 43 first term — 9/11, Patriot Act, tax cuts, Afghanistan+Iraq, SOX, Medicare Part D
us_bush_43_first_term_broad_2001_2005
2005–2009Bush 43 second term — Katrina, Iraq surge, GFC+TARP
us_bush_43_second_term_2005_2009
2006California climate regulatory regime: AB 32 through SB 100 and SB 253
california_climate_regulatory_regime_2006_present
2008–2014US Fed quantitative easing
us_fed_qe_2008_2014
2009–2012Obama ARRA + Dodd-Frank + ACA
us_obama_ara_2009_recovery
2009–2013Obama first term — ARRA stimulus, ACA, Dodd-Frank
us_obama_first_term_2009_2013
2013–2017Obama second term — JCPOA, Paris, TPP, Cuba opening
us_obama_second_term_2013_2017
2017–2021Trump first term — Republican supply-side + tariff-mercantilism fusion (USA)
us_trump_first_term_broad_2017_2021
2017–2025Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
us_trump_tcja_2017
2018–2019Trump trade war tariffs
us_trump_tariffs_2018_2019
2021–2024Biden IRA + CHIPS Act industrial policy
biden_ira_chips_2022
2021–2025Biden administration — Bidenomics industrial-policy progressivism (USA)
us_biden_administration_broad_2021_2025
2025Trump second term — MAGA-populist economic nationalism (USA)
us_trump_second_term_2025_present